The winner for Assembly District 39 in the San Fernando Valley was finally announced Monday after weeks of vote tallying, with the results sending shockwaves through the political establishment. In an unexpected upset, final results put political newcomer, Patty Lopez, ahead of incumbent Assemblyman Raul Bocanegra by 467 votes. Bocanegra conceded soon after, acknowledging that Lopez had won “by the narrowest of margins.”
Conventional wisdom had put the money on Bocanegra, who beat Lopez in the primary by 40 points. The first-term lawmaker was considered a rising star in the Democratic caucus and was hoping to be the next Assembly speaker. But early returns on election night showed him trailing Lopez, signaling major signs of trouble.
"In every election cycle, there's always one stunner," said Eric Bauman, chairman of the Los Angeles County Democratic Party. "This was the stunner."
Bocanegra raised more than $1 million for his campaign. But, with his win considered to be a lock, he spent much of his time and money supporting other Democratic candidates and committees. Analysts say conservative voters may have also helped tip the scales in Lopez’ favor. With no Republican to vote for, many of them may have simply gone against the incumbent. Together, the multitude of factors created the “perfect storm,” according to political consultant Mike Madrid.
The race’s outcome will have reverberations outside of the San Fernando Valley, emboldening political novices and causing entrenched incumbents to re-think their impregnability.
Patty Lopez is a community organizer and education advocate. From 2000 to 2012, she worked for the North Valley Occupational Center-Aviation Center in Van Nuys as a community representative. She has also served as a parent volunteer.
Read more about the final results here.