The Sacramento Area Council of Governments has received its regional housing needs determination from the California Department of Housing and Community Development. This is Cycle 6 of the Regional Housing Needs Assessment which covers the years 2021-2029.
How does the HCD determine the numbers? Here’s one helpful breakdown.
SACOGs regional determination for cycle 6 of RHNA (2021-2029) is 153,512 units. That’s a 46% increase over last cycle. The understanding was that the numbers were going dramatically increase across the state. It will likely be a higher increase in coastal markets. (2/10) pic.twitter.com/fOyQW3znZm
— Dov Kadin (@DovKadin) July 28, 2019
That number reflects both housing need associated with new growth (based on DOF projections) and existing need (based on how the region stacks up on those green metrics). The existing need adjustments are trying to estimate what is needed to bring us back into equilibrium. (3/10) pic.twitter.com/ilsUUU3utQ
— Dov Kadin (@DovKadin) July 28, 2019
>When I say that the numbers are increasing across the state, it’s not because we are expecting more growth. It’s entirely because the existing need is higher than its ever been. In SACOG, they make up over a quarter of our total number. I’ll go through each one. (4/10) pic.twitter.com/0krdTphzH3
— Dov Kadin (@DovKadin) July 28, 2019
>Vacancy rate is the biggest one for sacog. HCD multiplies the difference between our vacancy rate and a healthy rate of 5 by our projected households in 2029. Its adding ~23k units. Worth noting we subtracted 12k units last cycle due to abnormally high rates so the swing is 35k. pic.twitter.com/UHSXpmSJLl
— Dov Kadin (@DovKadin) July 28, 2019
They add in units that will need to be replaced over the course of the period, which gives another 5k. (6/10) pic.twitter.com/W1771dLxzB
— Dov Kadin (@DovKadin) July 28, 2019
Overcrowding is a new one due to SB 828. Your adjustment is based on the difference in overcrowding rates between your region and comparable regions. We worked extensively with HCD to identify our comparable regions based on economic metrics. Another 6k. (7/10) pic.twitter.com/pAGI4Lm6IE
— Dov Kadin (@DovKadin) July 28, 2019
At this point, they add the adjustments so far to the total projected households in 2029, then subtract out the occupied units in 2021. (8/10) pic.twitter.com/VwZWopmCJ2
— Dov Kadin (@DovKadin) July 28, 2019
>Finally, they apply an adjustment for cost burden to both the lower income and higher income units, recognizing cost burden is experienced very differently across income groups. This one is also based on the difference between your region and comparable regions. Another 7k. 9/10 pic.twitter.com/8lndVmgmfV
— Dov Kadin (@DovKadin) July 28, 2019
As political and opaque as this process seems, HCD is pretty formulaic about how they apply these adjustments and are not just going to leave one out to avoid conflict. These are all written into state law. Next step: adopting a methodology for distributing these numbers! (10/10)
— Dov Kadin (@DovKadin) July 28, 2019
The Regional Housing Needs Assessment is mandated by state law to help determine how many housing units cities and counties must plan for. SACOG must develop a Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) and a Regional Housing Needs Plan (RHNP) for the six-county region which includes the counties of El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo, and Yuba, as well as their 22 cities.
There will be four public hearings this month. After the release of the draft RHNA allocation, jurisdictions have 45 days to appeal. Final RHNA allocation adoption takes place in October of 2020.