Some 7.5 million people have moved out of California since 2010, while just 5.8 million people have moved in. According to California’s Finance Department, the state has lost residents every year since 2001.
The California exodus is real and it’s undeniable, but the demographics may surprise you. They were recently detailed in a report from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC).
People who move to California are different from those who move out. In general, those who move here are more likely to be working age, to be employed, and to earn high wages—and are less likely to be in poverty—than those who move away
Those who move to California also tend to have higher education levels than those who move out—an especially important factor given the state’s strong need for college graduates. Notably, this gain in educated residents is concentrated among young college graduates (generally, adults in their 20s) looking for opportunities as they start their careers. In recent years, though, the net flow of college graduates has slowed considerably, and perhaps even reversed during the pandemic (but still remains positive for young college graduates).
Also of note: people who move to California have higher incomes than those who move away. Some have argued that the opposite is taking place—that California’s relatively progressive and high personal income tax rates drive out higher-income residents. But the fact is that California has been losing lower- and middle-income residents to other states for some time while continuing to gain higher-income adults. In the past five years the flow of middle-income residents out of the state has accelerated and net gains among higher income adults have ceased.
Since 2015, housing costs were the leading motivator for those exiting the state. The trend is expected to continue. A survey conducted by PPIC reveals 37% of Californians have seriously considered leaving California because of housing costs.