What happens when a city gets back to basics and prioritizes fighting crime? The answer may be playing out in real time in San Francisco, where crime has dropped to its lowest level in more than 20 years.
Crime has been declining nationwide since the end of the pandemic. But as the San Francisco Chronicle reports, the situation in San Francisco is a story unto its own.
While crime decreased across the country in 2024, a Chronicle analysis of data from the Real Time Crime Index, a tool that samples crime statistics from across the country, shows that what happened in San Francisco was unusual.
Overall, from the 12 months ending in January 2024 to the 12 months ending in January 2025 (the latest available data), violent crime dropped by about 6% in cities with between 250,000 and 1 million people that are tracked by the index. But in San Francisco, violent crime fell by 14%. The difference in property crime trends were even more extreme: the mid-sized cities saw a 9% decrease in aggregate, while San Francisco saw a 28% decrease.
Compared to individual cities tracked by the index that are close in size, San Francisco’s decreases over that time period were among the highest: it had the third largest decrease in violent crime, and the largest decrease in property crime.
The trend has continued this year. By the end of last month, crime rates were down 14% compared to the same time period in 2024. Property crime was down by an even larger 31%.
Nearly every type of property crime has been falling quickly in San Francisco. Burglaries, motor vehicle thefts and larceny thefts are all down by more than a quarter. In terms of total crimes, the largest contributor to the drop-off comes from a huge decrease in car break-ins, one of San Francisco’s most common (and most notorious) crimes. The police department began a targeted crackdown on the smash-and-grabs in fall 2023, and the number of break-ins has fallen steadily since.
As for robberies, those are down 20%.
Magnus Lofstrom, a criminologist at the Public Policy Institute of California, told the Chronicle that policy changes have likely contributed to San Francisco’s progress. The city began taking a tougher stance on crime and drug use under former Mayor London Breed. Breed shifted the city away from the so-called harm reduction model and put more cops on the street. Those efforts have ramped up under the new mayor, Daniel Lurie, another moderate Democrat.
Though the police department continues to struggle with staffing shortages, police presence has increased in high-crime areas. There have been crackdowns on drug markets and thefts along the 6th Street Corridor, Jefferson Square Park, and Market and Van Ness. Grow SF, which advocates for increased public safety, points to the creation of a new street team response model, Hospitality Zone Task Force, and Mobile Triage Unit as well.
The district attorney’s office under Brooke Jenkins has done a complete 180 since the recall of former DA Chesa Boudin. She replaced the restorative justice model with a more traditional approach that emphasizes victims rights and accountability for criminals. In 2024, there were more prosecutions for misdemeanors than at any time since 2011, a previous analysis by the Chronicle found. Between 2023 and last year, misdemeanor drug possession and petty theft charges jumped. Charges for assault and battery were also up, and narcotics charges increased significantly in 2024. Meanwhile, the number of defendants who undergo diversion programs in lieu of prosecution has declined.
The tougher tack at the DA’s office appears to have boosted police morale. Data show cops are referring more cases to the DA for prosecution.
San Francisco suffered a major hit to its reputation in recent years, which further harmed tourism after COVID. This year, the San Francisco Travel Association forecasts a small increase in visitors plus an additional $9.41 billion in tourism spending.
“The vibe shift is, I believe, real in our city,” Mayor Lurie said of the changes taking place in San Francisco. “There’s a sense of hope and optimism that people haven’t seen for a long time. I have a lot of people saying, ‘I’m proud to be a San Franciscan for the first time in a while.’”