Recent immigration raids have left many immigrant-heavy communities in a state of fear. A new analysis shows the crackdown has not only impacted workplaces, but likely schools as well — with a 22% increase in student absences in the Central Valley.
The working paper (available here) was published Monday by Stanford University.
Analyzing three years of daily attendance data from five school districts in the Central Valley, the study found on average a 22% increase in student absences in January and February 2025, compared with the same months in previous years.
Considerable jumps were seen in all age groups but particularly for younger students, with the increase among K-5 students more than triple the effect among high schoolers.
“The findings indicate lost learning opportunities, but this isn’t just about kids missing out on instructional time,” said Thomas S. Dee, the Barnett Family Professor at Stanford Graduate School of Education (GSE), who conducted the study with support from Big Local News, a project of the Stanford Computational Journalism Lab. “The stress that’s being put on these young children and their families is serious, and the increased absences are a leading indicator of broader developmental harm.”
The Central Valley region includes the counties of Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Mariposa, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Tulare, and Tuolumne. Its rich agricultural sector has attracted immigrants for decades. There are an estimated 900,000 immigrants living there, according to the Central Valley Immigrant Integration Collaborative (CVIIC).